A modeling framework to assess climate vulnerability and future distributions of tropical tree species: a case study on Brazilian ipês
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https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2934-0053
Abstract
Assessing climate vulnerability of tropical trees requires ecological niche modeling frameworks capable of integrating multiple sources of uncertainty. Here, we present an integrated modeling approach that combines climatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors, dimensionality reduction, multi-algorithm calibration, and ensemble forecasting to evaluate future environmental suitability under climate change. Using two Brazilian Handroanthus species as a case study, occurrence data were spatially filtered, predictors were summarized through principal component analysis, and models were built using six algorithms with performance-weighted consensus projections. Future distributions were projected for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) under intermediate and high emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The framework showed high predictive reliability and revealed contrasting vulnerability patterns, including severe suitability losses for one species and greater stability for the other across phytogeographic domains. Beyond species-specific outcomes, results demonstrate how integrated Ecologial Niche Modeling (ENM) frameworks can identify climate-driven risk gradients and support climate-informed conservation, forest management, and territorial planning in tropical regions.
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